CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32596/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2024-08-07T14:09Z. Eruption with M4.5 flare from AR 3744 (approx. S10W22), field line movement, and possible faint EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195. Arrival signature (possibly the combined front of this CME, 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T19:36Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:13Z (-7.24h, +5.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/08/07 14:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 23:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 00:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
POS Difference: 1:40
POS Midpoint: 23:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:50

Numeric View/Impact Type: 4
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04
Travel Time: ~7.04 * 9:50 = 69:13

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-10T11:13Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/08/08 01:23Z

Lead Time: 58.47 hour(s)
Difference: 0.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-08-08T01:27Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy